Gökhan Ergöçün
April 02, 2026•Update: April 04, 2026
ISTANBUL
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran triggered an immediate global supply chain shock over the past month, causing significant volatility in energy and commodity markets.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its retaliatory attacks in the Gulf region have drastically impacted global markets.
Global oil prices surged by over 40% following the start of the conflict, while fertilizer and natural gas prices also posted significant gains.
In the US, national average retail gasoline prices increased by approximately 36%, or about $1.06 a gallon, in the four weeks following the start of the war.
The national average for a gallon of gasoline reached $4.1, up from $2.98 a month earlier.
Diesel prices saw an even sharper climb due to disrupted maritime shipping routes, increasing by 46% to $5.5 per gallon.
While prices vary across the country, California has the highest fuel prices and Oklahoma the lowest prices.
President Donald Trump said on Thursday: "Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home.
"This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers of neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict."
Higher diesel costs quickly translated into more expensive groceries and retail goods for everyday shoppers.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently forecast that food prices could rise about 3.6% soon.
Side effects including on delivery services are also affecting consumer prices through additional costs.
- Heating oil, fertilizer
Families living in colder regions have faced massive spikes in heating oil prices since the beginning of the war.
The price of residential heating oil has surged in some regions by around 60%, with homeowners paying approximately $4.4 per gallon to keep their houses warm.
US heating oil futures surged above $4.60 per gallon by late March.
Agricultural sectors also took a heavy hit from the escalating tensions as natural gas shortages directly disrupted the production of essential agricultural chemicals.
Around 44% of sulfur, 31% of urea, 18% of ammonia and 15% of phosphates -- all key fertilizer components -- are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
The cost of nitrogen-based fertilizers soared by 35% in just one month.
Farmers have struggled to secure affordable urea for their fields. A ton of urea cost them around $700, putting enormous pressure on upcoming planting seasons.
Urea prices increased around 30% on a monthly basis.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said this week that the ongoing conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz region is disrupting energy and fertilizer flows, with measurable impacts on costs and growing risks for food systems, trade and vulnerable economies.
