January 28, 2017•Update: January 28, 2017
By Ovunc Kutlu
NEW YORK
President Donald Trump's energy policies are unlikely to change U.S. crude oil, natural gas and coal production, leading research and consulting firm said Friday.
Trump has promised to "unleash the full potential" of the country’s hydrocarbon resources and begin an "energy revolution" in the country.
"The U.S.' oil and gas renaissance started in the shales a decade ago," Andy Roberts, Research Director for Global Thermal Coal Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in a company report.
In the eight years of the Barack Obama administration, average domestic crude oil production rose 92 percent from 5 million barrels per day in 2008, to its peak level of 9.6 in 2016, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
"Gas production surged to 73 billion cubic feet, up 32 percent from 2008," Wood Mackenzie noted.
"Keeping pace with that oil and gas growth and spurring a rebound in coal production could be challenging, regardless of policy," Roberts said.
Coal production, however, declined 64 percent during Obama's tenure; but, Roberts argued Trump's plans would not dramatically change the future for coal in the U.S.
"There will be marginal improvements in coal production costs, but rising coal mine productivity, low-cost energy alternatives and growing U.S. energy efficiency are moving the coal industry in a new, uncertain direction," he said.
Robert believes natural gas use and renewable energy would continue to suppress coal in the U.S. energy mix.
"Nothing President Trump plans will stop natural gas and renewables from taking market share from an increasingly less labor-intensive coal industry," he said.
He also said the country’s oil and gas production would be shaped by the global economy, world demand and their markets around the world.
Since oil prices plummeted from $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $26 last January, the American oil industry has been hit hard by massive losses, layoffs and capital shortages.
U.S. oil production is still more than 600,000 barrels a day less than its peak level in April 2016, and currently at 8.96 million barrels per day, according to the EIA.
