US election: Brussels worried about shifting security, defense balance

BRUSSELS

The European Union is preparing for a potential shift in transatlantic relations as the US presidential election approaches within days, with officials particularly focused on defense and security implications, according to senior EU officials and analysts.

The European Commission has established what Brussels insiders call a "rapid reaction force" -- though officially unnamed -- to prepare for either outcome of the Nov. 5 election.

"We are indeed preparing for the US elections. All possible outcomes are considered. This preparation also includes discussions with EU member states," Commission spokeswoman Arianna Podesta told Anadolu.

She emphasized the EU's commitment to maintaining a close partnership with the US "on a bipartisan basis."

Concerns about Trump's return to office

Donald Trump's potential return to the White House has raised concerns in Brussels, given his previous presidency's rocky relationship with European allies.

Trump's suggestions about potentially not defending NATO allies who fail to meet financial obligations have reignited debates about European strategic autonomy.

"Trump has been very clear that he has very little patience for the current policy (Ukraine and NATO), and would favor pressuring both Russia and Ukraine for a quick end to the conflict," said Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.

Similarly, Luigi Scazzieri, transatlantic relations expert at the Centre for European Reform said: "Trump has also made no secret of his dislike for NATO and belief that Europeans are freeriding on the US for security" and a Trump victory would divide the EU and put it under pressure.

On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory would likely mean continuity with current Biden administration policies, according to Scazzieri.

"Harris will mean continuity with Biden's policies. She believes in the value of alliances and values European allies -- so NATO would be safe," said Scazzieri. He noted, however, that trade tensions would likely persist as Harris would likely continue Biden's protectionist policies.

Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Center suggested Europe would "breathe a sigh of relief" and see a continuity in a clear Harris victory.

He said a Trump win would present a spectrum of challenges in defense, security and trade relations which he sees "as a catastrophe."

Strategic preparations

The EU has accelerated defense industry initiatives and appointed its first-ever defense commissioner, reflecting growing concerns about security autonomy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's team is analyzing scenarios for both potential US administration changes.

"The EU is not prepared for Trump," said Scazzieri. He noted the Commission has prepared possible retaliatory tariff lists but the "EU can do little to prepare for Trump's policies in security. It will be a 'wait and see' approach."

EU focus on US elections

Vice President Harris and former President Trump will face off in the presidential election on Tuesday.

Fresh from its election agenda and still in the process of choosing leadership, the EU is focused on the US elections.

Any outcome will mark the beginning of a new era for the EU that will require it to adapt to new geopolitical and strategic decisions on the other side of the transatlantic divide.

The US elections are fateful at a time when the EU is struggling to navigate internal divisions on issues from migration to common foreign policy.

*Writing by Yasin Gungor​​​​​​​