US intel community analyzing how Cuba might respond to military action: Report

The US intelligence community is analyzing how Cuba might respond to potential American military action as tensions between Washington and Havana continue to escalate, CBS News reported Wednesday.

The report said analysts at the Pentagon and the Defense Intelligence Agency began assessing possible Cuban reactions earlier this month while tracking the Universal, a sanctioned Russian-flagged oil tanker headed toward Cuba.

According to two US officials cited by CBS News, work has also begun on developing military options for President Donald Trump. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Such intelligence assessments are commonly used by US military planners to evaluate not only the immediate consequences of military action but also the broader chain of political and military responses that could follow, according to the report.

Asked on Wednesday whether further escalation with Cuba was likely following the recent US indictment of former Cuban leader Raul Castro, Trump downplayed the possibility.

"No, there won't be escalation. I don't think there needs to be," Trump told the reporters.

The intelligence review comes amid increasingly strained relations between the two countries. This year, the Trump administration has expanded sanctions on Cuba, targeted military and intelligence officials, and increased efforts to restrict the island’s access to fuel and shipping networks.

CBS News also reported that Cuba has acquired attack drones, though it remains unclear where the drones came from or how Havana obtained them.

Earlier this week, Axios reported that Cuba possessed more than 300 military drones and had discussed possible plans to use them against the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay in the event of armed conflict.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel denied that his country poses a military threat to the US but warned that any US assault on the island would lead to a “bloodbath.”

The developments follow a recent visit to Cuba by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who met with Cuban intelligence officials and Raul Guillermo “Raulito” Rodrguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro.

According to a CIA official cited by CBS News, Ratcliffe told Cuban officials that the Trump administration was offering “a genuine opportunity for collaboration” and a path toward stabilizing Cuba’s struggling economy.

However, he reportedly warned that any improvement in relations would depend on Havana distancing itself from US’ adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran.