Turkey and India pondering over their policy limits

By Mohammad Pervez Bilgrami

The writer is an international affairs analyst who has written for newspapers including Asia Times, Daily Sabah and Hurriyet Daily News.

NEW DELHI, India

“Better late than never” and “well begun is half done.” These two very common adages were probably in the minds of the delegation led by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a recent visit to India aimed at strengthening the bilateral relationship between the two countries. Both the countries want to position themselves in the new emerging world equation while keeping their domestic and foreign policies fairly intact. Their meeting ended on a positive note but with some rider.

In the joint press statement, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi thanked President Erdogan for Turkey’s support for India’s membership in Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Apart from Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), where India needs Turkey’s support for its membership and this had remained high on agenda, Turkey is also a key member of elite export control regimes, the Wassenaar Arrangement and Australia Group where India has also applied for membership.

Interestingly, Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari’s visit to Armenia takes place at a time that coincided with the 102nd anniversary of the so-called Armenian "genocide" on April 24. Another notable development was that few days before Erdogan’s visit, India had hosted Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades on April 25-29. According to a media report, the leader asked India to tell Turkey that the status quo on the territorial dispute on his island is unacceptable.

Prior to Erdogan’s visit, his chief advisor Ilnur Cevik on his eighth visit to India in different capacities interacted with the people of media, think-tanks, and opinion leaders and was more optimistic and hopeful for expansion and strengthening of ties between India and Turkey.

Erdogan’s interview with an Indian TV station, just before his India visit where he raised the issue of Kashmir and offered his country’s mediation in solving the longstanding dispute did not bode well in India. It is still not clear whether it was a reaction to India’s surprising bonhomie with Armenia and Greek-administered Cyprus or a calculated move to check the limit of persistence on the Indian side.

This entire hubbub just before Erdogan’s scheduled visit might be the result of India’s emerging foreign policy calculus of strategic balancing in dealing with foreign countries especially with the countries of Middle East and Asia-Pacific. On the other hand Turkey wants to establish its bilateral relation with India that is separated from its mutual relations with Pakistan, which has mostly been cordial, and now growing into deep-rooted strategic relations. And it remains to be seen whether India will be prepared to carry on strengthening its ties with Turkey without putting Pakistan in the middle of it.

Turkey has emerged as a major power in the Muslim world and an important player in the global political system. With its new status and deepening tribulations with its European and NATO partners, Turkey is diversifying its foreign policy and seriously engaging with the emerging countries in the world. On the other hand, India with its 1.3 billion population and as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, naturally obliges both the countries to come close and forge a strong bilateral relationship.

Modi has already visited Turkey to attend 2015 G20 summit held in the resort city of Antalya and has also met Erdogan in China during 2016 G20 summit. Turkey was also the focus country at an India film festival 2016. The relationship between the two has grown significantly, yet it has not been materialized to its true potential. There is a huge scope of cooperation in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia. After the probable end of NATO mission in Afghanistan, Turkey is expected to play an important role in the future of Afghanistan where India is looking for mutually reliable partners. Both countries can also jointly work to democratize the UN Security Council and make this body more representative as per the realities and need of 21st century.

Overall this high-level visit provided a good platform for the leaders of the countries to chart out the future course of action for the mutual benefit of both the countries.

Apart from their bilateral relationship, both India and Turkey can together play a significant role in continental Africa also as both the countries are playing their part in helping and building the economic prospects in Africa. Turkey’s relation with Bangladesh got fraught in the recent past, but with this new equation with India, Turkey may get a platform in association with India to interact with Bangladesh Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina who enjoys a cordial relationship with India. Similarly, India can also use Turkey’s good offices with Pakistan to raise its traditional issues should the need arise. In precarious situations, using the links of regional powers is much safer and more secure than the mediation of big powers.

There is an important history of Turkish-Indian relations even before the Khilafat movement. During the Mughal period, a king had changed his name from Salim to Jahangir out of respect to the Ottoman Sultan Yavuz Sultan Selim. These important events of history which should have worked to strengthen the ties between post-independence India and Republican Turkey were actually seized on by Pakistan after the partition of British India. India with its second-largest Muslim population in the world (that is more than that of Pakistan) is in good position to use this historic bond between the countries depending on the willingness of the present Indian government. India may start with granting Turkey necessary permission to build the Yunus Emre Culture Centre in Delhi.

India has cautiously welcomed Turkey, and bilateral relations are likely to move forward, but with the rider on the Kashmir dispute where India has categorically expressed its viewpoint that it is not ready for third-party mediation in solving the issue.

Both India and Turkey need to interact frequently and forge a strong bilateral relationship, and then work jointly on projects in some third country. But before that, both countries seem to be testing limits of each other on the contagious issue before taking the bilateral relationship forward.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.