Selim Han Yeniacun
26 January 2021•Update: 26 January 2021
ISTANBUL
In the last two years, Israel has had an unstable domestic political climate with the crisis of not being able to establish and sustain a coalition government. During the reconciliation government established in May last year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was protested in massive public demonstrations, with the corruption cases against him constituting the primary reason for the public furor. The secular-religious divide has now grown so much that bridging it based on social consensus seems an almost impossible task. Economic indicators have also worsened with increased public debts stemming from the failure to approve the budget and, ultimately, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the state of the Israeli economy, which used to be assessed with outstanding ratings by international credit institutions, has been blamed for these crises. Thus, except for the years it spent in wars, 2020 has been the most problematic year on record in Israel’s domestic politics.
Apart from the long absence of internal political stability, it is very difficult to predict a political agreement that might be reached in Israel in 2021. For the fourth consecutive time in March 2021, Israelis will go to the early-ballot box, and their preferences, according to current polling, suggest that the next elections will not produce a stable government either. The political divisions in recent years have constituted the weakest point of Israeli politics. It seems that Israel’s governments are unable to pursue stable policies in a divided society and a divided political climate, except for their extremist stance on the Palestinian issue. In this article, we will examine the causes of this political knot, and seek an answer to the question: what are the chances of a new order emerging from this chaos?
What I should say in conclusion, I am going to say first. We may state that Netanyahu, who tried to obscure the unstable atmosphere of domestic politics with ominously historic steps taken in foreign policy under Trump-Kushner’s protective umbrella and retained his title of prime minister amid successive elections, is at the center of the Israeli political deadlock. It will be sufficient to look at the latest government’s challenges to understand Netanyahu’s role. A memorandum of consensus was signed by the coalition (of Likud, Blue-White, Derekh Eretz, Gesher, Shas, the United Torah Judaism [UTJ] and two of the three deputies from the Labor Party), led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, promising that it would urgently concentrate on two essential issues.
The first feature of the consensus was the adoption of strict measures against the new type of coronavirus (COVID-19), and the second item was the passing of the two-term budget (2020-2021, 2021-2022) in the Knesset without wasting any more time. Netanyahu rejected the two-year budget and caused the government to collapse because the corruption charges for which he is currently on trial, as anticipated, affected him very adversely. If the government had not collapsed, Gantz would be the next prime minister before the pandemic-related economic crisis was resolved, and if the financial outlook during Gantz’ premiership showed any positive signs, Netanyahu would undoubtedly lose dramatic public support so vital to him in the next election. That is why pressing Gantz for new early elections was the safest bet for Netanyahu in order to keep his position.
On the other hand, the disputes that started with intra-government debates and discussions on power, similar to the process triggered by Avigdor Liberman, who quit the Netanyahu government in December 2018, reached the highest level with the consequence of losing power due to the participation of Gantz’ Blue-White in that coalition from the very beginning. Gantz is breaking away from an essential electoral partner like Yair Lapid, and the ambitious Netanyahu’s masterfully blocking of Gantz-controlled divisions of the government has already locked down Israeli politics. For instance, with divisions such as the Office of Prime Minister under Likud’s control and the Foreign Ministry under the control of Blue-White, they tried to steal roles from each other. The division of internal intelligence between the Ministry of National Defense and the Office of the Prime Minister in determining security policies made it impossible for the government to form a single voice as the executive authority.
The fact is that the Israeli left, with a few exceptions, cannot achieve any greater success than it did in the March 2020 elections. Moreover, in the new elections, the three leaders formerly under the Blue-White umbrella plan to gather the bloc under their leadership. If that does not happen, it is clear that, as one of the opposition leaders, they will continue with their agendas. Netanyahu’s situation is drifting towards an impasse greater than the division of the left. Netanyahu, who has often kept religious parties around himself as well as a number of major political figures from the racist parties, has been profoundly shaken this time by the departures from the party as a consequence of the dictatorship he established within Likud. The anti-Netanyahu demonstrations that started in Tel Aviv despite the pandemic and spread to West Jerusalem, and the diaspora Jews in the United States’ mostly supporting Biden instead of Trump in the last US Presidential elections, seem to push Netanyahu to take new measures both within and outside. Likud’s only man appears to be fighting a fierce battle to maintain his leadership of the right against his former comrade Gideon Sa’ar (New Hope), former government partners Naftali Bennet (Yamina), and Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beytanu). And this battle is not going to be easy at all.
Netanyahu has to contrive a variety of alternative moves to remain prime minister after the 2021 elections and to unite the Israeli right. If he can convince the Knesset, the inclusion of the far-right parties in parliament through the lowering of the election threshold shows that Netanyahu can replicate the strategy he implemented before the March 2020 elections. Having lost much of his power now, to unite New Hope and Yamina under his leadership, Netanyahu would have to offer them more than he gave Gantz: the Foreign and Defense ministries. There is no reason why these three parties should not cooperate ideologically. Nevertheless, we cannot predict what concessions the party leaders will be satisfied with. Apart from the agenda, Netanyahu also has an escape plan.
The year 2021 is not just a year of general elections in Israel. It is also the year the Knesset will elect a president. Let us presume that the March 2021 election turned out one in which Netanyahu failed to guarantee the prime ministry. If that really turns out the case, he could turn Likud into the hands of the reformist wing and run for president, in which case he would secure himself lifelong political and criminal immunity. Although the presidency is a symbolic office, the fact that the elections will be more contentious than ever and that his corruption case might end very unfavorably may actually make Netanyahu the new president of Israel.
[ The writer has an MA degree in Israel Studies program at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is currently a PhD candidate and researcher at the Shanghai University’s Center for Global Governance ]
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.
