EXPLAINER – Is Senegal on the brink of political turmoil?

JOHANNESBURG

Protests erupted in Senegal on Sunday after President Macky Sall announced the indefinite postponement of elections that had been scheduled for Feb. 25.

Police fired tear gas at protesters and arrested opposition leaders, including former Prime Minister Aminata Toure. Several protesters were also detained.

But during a tense parliamentary session on Monday, the National Assembly passed a law in support of postponing the presidential election until Dec. 15, leading to further riots.

Some opposition lawmakers were forcibly removed from the assembly before the vote, leaving many to question the current state of Senegal's long-praised track record as a bastion of democracy in West Africa.

According to Sall, one of the reasons for election delay was to address objections to the disqualification of several opposition candidates that could affect the credibility of the polls.

Last month, a constitutional council removed several opposition candidates from the election.

With his second term expiring on April 2, Sall, 62, has vowed not to seek another as this would violate the country's constitutional limit.

Tensions have been growing

South Africa-based political analyst Edwin Yingi told Anadolu that, Sall's decision to postpone the election, besides violating the Constitution, risked arousing suspicions of a bigger scheme to extend his power into a third term.

"That's why the opposition and its supporters are now not listening to his explanations," explained Yingi, a postdoctoral fellow at the department of political sciences at the University of South Africa.

He noted that until recently, Senegal had been seen by the international community as a democratic oasis in West Africa — a country that has avoided military coups even as juntas seized power in many of its neighbors. But perceptions could change if democracy keeps losing ground, warned Yingi.

"Of late, democratic spaces have been shrinking in the country, with the government clamping down on protesters and arresting opposition leaders."

Yingi argued that recent events in Senegal are the buildup of years of public frustration.

These, he said, came to a head, last year in July when violent protests after prominent opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was arrested and charged with plotting an insurrection a week after he had been convicted for immoral behavior and sentenced to two years.

Authorities responded with tear gas, suspending Internet access, and sweeping arrests of protesters.

According to Yingi, young people in Senegal are also frustrated with high unemployment and want to see more jobs created, thus joining the protests.

Political turmoil

Buchanan Ismael, a political scientist at the University of Rwanda, warns that if the current situation is not handled with care, Senegal could descend into political turmoil.

"I believe that Senegalese people, including politicians, need to sit down and give a chance to dialogue, if they want to have a credible election and also to come out with a new agenda for their elections," he told Anadolu.

Ismael believes delaying the polls might allow some opposition candidates who had been excluded from running in the election to get their names back on the ballot.

Some of the prominent candidates excluded in the race include, Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade, son of former President Abdoulaye Wade.

Yingi, the politics scholar in Pretoria, struck a similar tone, warning that Senegal is "going through a crisis and it should be handled carefully to avoid it descending into turmoil like its neighbors."

Human Rights watch senior researcher for the Sahel region, Ilaria Allegrozzi said in a report released Monday that delays in holding elections puts human rights at risk in Senegal, where security forces have previously been documented using excessive force, including by firing live ammunition and tear gas at protesters.

She said at least 37 people have been killed in violent clashes in the West African country since March 2021, with none so far held accountable.

"Authorities need to act to prevent violence, rein in abusive security forces, and end their assault on opposition and media. They should respect freedom of speech, expression, and assembly, and restore internet, putting Senegal back on its democratic course," Allegrozzi said.