July 09, 2016•Update: July 09, 2016
By Todd Crowell
TOKYO
Voters in Japan go to the polls Sunday, bringing to a close a lackluster and apathetic election season for the House of Councilors, the upper house of country’s bicameral legislature.
This is the fourth time Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will have faced the voters, and there is not reason to believe he won’t come out of it again with a clear majority.
Abe is in no danger of losing his job in this election as his party and coalition partner hold a commanding majority in the more powerful lower chamber.
The main suspense is whether or not the LDP and its allies win a two-thirds majority which would allow the cabinet to propose changes in the constitution -- Abe already has a super majority in the other branch of the legislature.
Any constitutional revision needs a two-thirds majority in both houses, ratified by majority vote in a national referendum.
However, if one expected a vigorous debate on the merits of constitutional reform in this season, he would be disappointed. The constitution has been the unspoken issue in this campaign.
Abe hardly says anything about it in his campaign speeches.
He would prefer to talk about his decision to delay a three-percentage point hike in the national sales tax, which is a pretty safe but not very inspiring topic.
Amending the American-written document has been a stated goal of the LDP since it was formed in 1955.
In 2012, the party issued a document outlining its many proposed changes -- but it has never been this close to enacting them.
Proposed changes include repealing or altering the famous Article 9, which prohibits Japan from having any kind of armed forces. It has been interpreted to permit the euphemistically named Self Defense Forces, and interpreted again by the Abe cabinet to permit “collective defense”.
Japan’s upper house comprises 242 members, elected to fixed, six-year terms.
Half of the house is up for election every three years (it cannot be dissolved, like the lower house).
Electors vote twice: once for the proportional list and once for prefectural districts.
The magic number for those favoring constitutional change in this election is 162.
The LDP as a whole does not expect to reach this number.
It will need support from its formal coalition partner, Komeito, and probably votes from some of the smaller parties, some of who favor revision.
Still, it is not as easy as simply counting the winning parties and assuming they will support their party’s official position.
Not everyone in the LDP is eager to revise the charter; not everyone in the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is against it.
Masahiko Komura, an LDP vice president and former foreign minister, said during a television interview “there is zero possibility” that Abe would try to revise Article 9 even if the party and its allies win a two-thirds majority.
The upcoming election is notable for two other reasons.
It is the first election to be held since the voting age was lowered from 20 to18.
It is also the first test case of the alliance for convenience between the main opposition DP and the Japan Communist Party --who have agreed to coordinate their election campaigns so that they don’t split the opposition vote.
