- Annual consumer inflation came in at 3.2% in October, down from 7.7% in the same month of 2022
- Thanksgiving feast for 10 people estimated to cost $61.17 on average this year, $2.88 decrease from last year’s average of $64.05
ISTANBUL
As inflation eases in the world’s biggest economy, a record number of US consumers are expected to shop during this year’s Thanksgiving weekend.
An estimated 182 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
If that figure is realized, it would be 15.7 million more than last year and also surpass the 165.3 million shoppers recorded in 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic and the inflation spikes that followed since 2021.
The figure is also the highest estimate since the NRF started its survey in 2017.
“Retailers have been preparing for months for this occasion. They are stocked and ready to help customers find the gifts and other items they want at great prices during the entire holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement last week.
Over 32 million people in the US are estimated to shop on Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, while more than 130 million are expected to hit the stores or shop online on Black Friday, according to the survey.
Almost 66 million shoppers are anticipated for Small Business Saturday, which supports local businesses, followed by approximately 35 million on Sunday.
An additional more than 71 million are forecast to take advantage of Cyber Monday deals, the second-biggest shopping day and the biggest day for e-commerce.
“Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to shop, with 72% planning to shop, up from 69% in 2022,” according to the survey, which was conducted between Nov. 1-6.
“Cyber Monday is the second most popular day, attracting 39% of those planning to shop over the weekend, on par with 38% last year.”
NRF also estimates sales during the holiday season, from November until the end of December, increasing 3% to 4% from last year to reach between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
“By comparison, last year holiday sales totaled $929.5 billion. This year’s holiday spending is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019,” according to the retail trade association.
Dinner cost down 4.5%
Much of the record estimates for shopping are due to softening inflation in the US.
Annual consumer inflation came in at 3.2% in October and 3.7% in September, significantly slowing down from 7.7% and 8.2% recorded in the same months of last year, respectively.
The figure had jumped to 9.1% last summer, the highest in more than 40 years.
Producer inflation, in addition, showed a monthly decline of 0.5% in October, while the monthly increase for September was revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%.
Consequently, the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner this year, which typically includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, veggies and pumpkin pie, is down 4.5% year-on-year.
The American Farm Bureau Federation (ABFB) said last Wednesday a feast for 10 people is estimated to cost $61.17 on average – a $2.88 decrease from last year’s average of $64.05.
The estimated figure, however, is still 25% higher compared to 2019, before the pandemic.
Much of the decline is due to the price decrease of the traditional turkey, which accounted for an average of 43% of the Thanksgiving dinner price over the last two decades, according to the ABFB.
The cost of a 16-pound (7.26-kilogram) turkey stood at $27.35 this year, down a notable 5.6% from last year.
Products with the largest percentage drop in prices were whipping cream and fresh cranberries, with declines of 22.8% and 18.3%, respectively, the ABFB said in a report.
Despite the price decreases in turkey and other items, this year will have the second most expensive Thanksgiving meal in the ABFB survey’s 38-year history, according to the federation.
If consumer and producer inflation figures continue softening in following months, it is possible to see higher shopper figures and lower costs of dinner on Thanksgiving Day in following years.
