ISTANBUL
Commodity prices were mixed last week amid inflation concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical developments, especially led by the efforts to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump’s policies on its major trade partners and the Fed’s narrow policy space made price estimates difficult, while giving rise to inflationary pressures.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that it is important to note that progress has been made in bringing inflation down from its 40-year high in 2022, and stated that the level of uncertainty in the economy and the Trump administration's evolving policies on tariffs may have an impact.
Meanwhile, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said the US 10% tariffs will affect US-China bilateral relations in a letter to his newly appointed American counterpart Howard Lutnick.
Meanwhile, Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have to “get together,” as he wishes to see a ceasefire to end the war.
Gold sees another record
Gold rose 1.7% last week—the eighth consecutive rise—reaching a new record of $2,954.89 per ounce, led by the concerns over Trump’s tariffs and ongoing geopolitical concerns.
Silver climbed 1.1% and palladium 0.5%, while platinum fell 1.1% per ounce last week.
Meanwhile, copper declined 2.1% per pound, following Citigroup’s downwardly revised 6-12-month copper price forecast. The likelihood of the US reciprocal tariffs coming into effect in the first quarter fell, leading to estimates that copper may not go up so soon.
Chinese defense giant Norinco Group (China North Industries Corporation) said it was ready to revise its offer to acquire copper and cobalt assets from Congolese miner Chemaf, while Chilean miner Codelco and UK-based miner Anglo American signed a deal to jointly operate copper mines in central Chile.
At the same time, aluminum climbed 0.2% nickel 0.8%, zinc 1.2%, and lead 0.7% per pound last week.
Natural gas rises as temperature falls
Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $73.9 per barrel after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the increase in the US crude oil stocks, 4.6 million barrels, was short of the expected demand, despite rising above the market expectation of 2.2 million barrels.
The US daily crude oil production rose 300,000 barrels to nearly 13.5 million, while the country’s crude oil exports climbed 472,000 barrels, contributing to the supply-related pressure. The increase in production and exports strengthened the concerns over global oversupply, leading to a price decline.
Meanwhile, natural gas soared 12.6% due to the estimates of an extreme cold wave coming from the Arctic at the beginning of March, affecting a large part of North America.
China reveals new rural plan, USDA to release $20M in frozen funds
China released the “No. 1 central document” for 2025 on Sunday, outlining its rural revitalization plan, including various measures to improve incentives and subsidy systems for large grain production regions and industrializing its agricultural biotechnology.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it will release $20 million of farmer funds, which were previously approved but frozen by the Trump administration.
Brazil’s National Council for Energy decided to keep the mandatory biodiesel blend ratio at 14% from March, instead of a previously expected rise to 15%, last week. Soybeans rose 0.4% per bushel as most of Brazil’s biodiesel comes from them.
Rice declined 3% after Thailand’s support to rice farmers fell short of expectations, while farmers in the country are preparing protests due to falling prices and rising production costs.
Corn climbed 0.4% and wheat fell 1.6% per bushel last week, while cotton fell 1.3% and coffee 4.5%, and sugar rose 3.1% per pound. The ton price of cocoa declined 11.5%.
