Oil down amid Black Sea ceasefire hopes, impending tariffs

ISTANBUL

Oil prices fell on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while concerns about the global economy remained due to impending US reciprocal tariffs.

The international benchmark, Brent crude, decreased by around 0.36% trading at $71.46 per barrel at 11.40 a.m. local time (0840 GMT), down from $71.72 at the previous session's close.

The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by about 0.37%, settling at $68 per barrel, compared to its prior session close of $68.25.

Investors are closely monitoring US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which, if successful, could boost Russian oil supply, while a US delegation is pursuing a Black Sea ceasefire in meetings with Russian and Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine held "productive" talks with a US delegation in Saudi Arabia, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Sunday on X, highlighting discussions on key issues, including energy.

He reiterated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's goal of a "just and lasting peace" for Ukraine. The meeting precedes US-Russia talks on a potential ceasefire, though ongoing strikes raise doubts about progress.

The US is set to implement reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aiming to align tariffs with those imposed by other countries on its goods.

These impending tariffs have sparked uncertainty about the global economy, with experts warning that a slowdown in economic growth could reduce oil demand.

US President Donald Trump hinted at "flexibility" regarding the tariffs, stating on Friday that there would be room for adjustments, despite initially showing reluctance to allow exemptions.

"People are coming to me and asking if they can have exceptions," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

However, fresh US sanctions on Iran continue to raise expectations of tighter supply in global oil markets.

Last week, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 19 entities and vessels tied to Iran's oil exports, while the US State Department sanctioned a Chinese oil terminal for buying and storing Iranian crude from a sanctioned vessel.

The move is having an impact on the physical market, with spot and near-term futures gaining for oil from the Middle East, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

"Asian traders are said to be holding back from purchasing Iranian crude," Hynes said in an emailed-note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, issued a new schedule for seven member countries to make further production cuts to compensate previous overproductions.

This move is expected to offset the impact of the group's planned monthly production increases set to begin in April.