Oil prices ease over possible supply surplus, weaker US manufacturing sector

ISTANBUL

Oil prices edged lower Tuesday after eight members of the OPEC+ group, including both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, decided to postpone planned production increases in the first quarter of next year.

Brent crude was trading at $64.56 per barrel at 9.15 a.m. local time (0615 GMT), down around 0.4% from the previous close of $64.81.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also decreased by 0.4% to $60.66, compared to $60.90 in the prior session.

The eight members of the OPEC+ group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed Sunday to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to OPEC's statement on Sunday.

Investors interpreted the move as a signal of a potential supply surplus next year, putting downward pressure on prices.

The modest hike is part of a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and comes amid "healthy market fundamentals" and low oil inventories.

Producers also reaffirmed their commitment to monitor market conditions and to keep flexibility to pause or reverse any changes, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary reductions announced in November 2023. They previously approved a similar 137,000-bpd increase for November.

On the demand side, concerns about the US economy also weighed on prices.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in October, below expectations, signaling continued contraction in the US factory sector.

The manufacturing sector has been contracting for eight consecutive months. The data reinforced expectations that industrial fuel demand could remain subdued as winter approaches.

Investors are focused on the American Petroleum Institute's weekly US crude inventory data, due later today.