Precious metals drive commodity market in first nine months

ISTANBUL

The first nine months of the year saw precious metals dominate the commodity market, as global prices shifted under pressure from tariffs, economic uncertainty, and rising geopolitical tension.

Fluctuations in US monetary policy, weak data from China, and unpredictable weather shaped price movements across sectors.

Gold rose 47% since January, boosted by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and renewed concerns over a potential US government shutdown.

Silver climbed 61.4% in January–September, gaining from its role as a safe asset in times of instability and its industrial use in semiconductors and renewable energy, especially solar technology.

Platinum advanced 74% during the same period, supported by tariff disputes and public tensions between Tesla chief Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump earlier this year.

Palladium followed with a 38% jump, reflecting expectations of new US import duties on the metal.

Base metals also moved upward through most of the period.

Copper increased 21.1% and reached a record $5.92 per pound, after production was disrupted by an accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine — a site responsible for over 3% of global supply — and after Washington’s midyear announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports. Continued Chinese demand added momentum.

Aluminum gained 4.9%, lead 1.8%, while nickel dropped 0.6% and zinc 1.2%.

- Energy and agricultural markets weaken

Brent crude oil fell 11.6% as US crude inventories grew and OPEC+ production rose, heightening fears of oversupply. Natural gas prices slipped 9% in the same period.

Wheat declined 7.9% due to strong harvests, corn dropped 9.4%, soybeans edged down 0.9% as Chinese demand cooled, and rice fell 19.3% amid expectations of increased global output.

Coffee prices bucked the trend, surging 17.2% to $4.29 per pound after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil. Favorable weather in West Africa lifted production, while Trump’s suggestion of further tariffs on Colombia added uncertainty.

Sugar decreased 13.8%, cotton 3.8%, and cocoa plunged 42.2%.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia’s KCM Trade Global, told Anadolu that a mix of low interest rates and global tensions had pushed gold to record highs, pulling other precious metals along with it.

He said demand for gold and silver was strengthened by the favorable rate environment, keeping both metals among the most attractive assets for 2025.