Strong demand in commodities despite inflation, recession dilemma

ISTANBUL

Despite the inflation and recession dilemma, the strong course in demand for commodities continued last week, fueled by China's interest rate cut and weak demand for dollar.

The Fed left its federal funds rate unchanged, the first time since January 2022, after hiking rates by 500 basis points in 10 meetings from March 2022 till this May.

"Nearly all committee participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference.

On the contrary, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key policy interest rates by 25 basis points, saying that despite the downward trend in inflation, it is projected to remain "too high for too long."

It was the eighth consecutive rate hike despite the eurozone economy entering a small recession in the first quarter of this year.

The People’s Bank of China also cut medium-term lending rate – one-year loan prime rate (LPR) – for the first time in 10 months as post-COVID recovery lost momentum.

The rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 2.65%, the first cut since August 2022.

Meanwhile, the central bank unexpectedly cut its short-term policy rate – 7-day reverse repurchase rate – by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%.

The Bank of Japan on Friday decided to hold its interest rates at ultra-low levels and left yield curve control program unchanged, meeting economists' expectations.

The short-term interest rate target was kept at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields at around 0% after a two-day meeting.

The central bank maintained its view that the annual hike in consumer prices will decelerate in the coming months.

The Bank of England's interest rate decision is set to be announced this week, and Fed Chairman Powell's statements are also expected to impact commodity market.

Prices of gold fell by 0.2%, silver 0.4% and platinum by 2.6% last week, while palladium gained 6.7%.

Copper rose 3%, lead 6.2%, aluminum 0.2%, nickel 9.5% and zinc 3.1%.

Wheat traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange climbed 11.3% and corn jumped 12.7%, while soybeans dropped 3.2% and rice by 6.5%.

In the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the price of cotton slipped 2.1% and coffee 3.2%, while sugar went up 2.4%and cocoa 1.9%.

Cocoa hit its highest level since December 2015 at $3,271.