US consumers’ short-term inflation expectations unchanged in August

US consumers’ short-term inflation expectations remained unchanged in August, according to a survey released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months held steady at 3.6%, while five-year-ahead expectations remained at 3%, the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed.

Expectations for inflation three years ahead, meanwhile, declined 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.

Median expectations for gasoline price growth for the next year rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%.

Expected price growth increased 0.3 percentage points to 5.3% for food and 0.2 percentage points to 9.1% for medical care.

Expectations for increases in college education costs climbed 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while those for rent rose 0.7 percentage points to 6.6%.

Labor market expectations were mixed, with the outlook for unemployment and finding a job deteriorating. Expectations on job losses and voluntary departures improved somewhat.

The probability assigned to the US unemployment rate being higher a year from now increased 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest since April 2020.

The perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months fell 0.4 percentage points to 13.8%, while the probability of finding a new job after losing one declined 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%.

Consumers also became more pessimistic about their current and future financial situations and access to credit.

Expected household income growth remained unchanged at 3%, while expected spending growth rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.2%.

The survey, conducted from Aug. 3 to Aug. 31, is based on a nationally representative panel of 1,300 US household heads.

US consumer inflation rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in July. August inflation figures are scheduled to be released Thursday.