Polish foreign minister warns Russia may be preparing ‘something big’ this year

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned that Russia may be preparing a major operation this year and could stage a false-flag attack to justify further mobilization.

“We are receiving information ... we are not revealing the sources, but there are many (of them), that Russia is preparing something big this year,” Sikorski said at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday, according to Polish broadcaster TVP World.

“I believe that Putin needs a pretext for mobilization, so they could carry out a false-flag attack and tell the Russian people: ‘We are under attack, and therefore we need to mobilize,’ ” he added.

Sikorski did not specify what the reported operation might involve. Asked about possible scenarios, he said Belarusians were concerned about being drawn into the war in Ukraine.

He also warned that Baltic countries with Russian minorities could face escalation, saying NATO must be ready to deter potential aggression. A full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO member would be “crazy,” he said, suggesting that Moscow might instead pursue a less explicit action that would make it harder for the alliance to invoke its Article 5 mutual-defense clause.

Sikorski said Russia could sustain its war in Ukraine for another year or two despite economic pressure, unless Ukrainian strikes destroy more than half of its oil refinery capacity.