Plunging fertility rates present significant global challenges: Report

ISTANBUL

In 1970, the average Mexican woman had seven children. By 2014, that number had dropped to roughly two, and by 2023, it fell further to just 1.6, indicating that the population is no longer producing enough children to sustain itself, reflecting a plunging fertility rate.

But Mexico is not an isolated case. Many countries worldwide are experiencing declining fertility rates, with only a few exceptions. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, by 2050, over three-quarters of nations are expected to face similar trends.

“There has been an absolutely incredible drop in fertility -- much faster than anyone had anticipated.

“And it is happening in a lot of countries you would have never guessed," Nature News cited Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, as saying in a report.

In economies structured around steady population growth, declining fertility rates raise concerns about future drops in innovation and productivity as well as a shortage of working-age citizens to support an expanding elderly population.

Researchers caution that lower fertility rates could lead to broader consequences, including reduced military strength, diminished political influence and fewer investments in green technologies.

Austin Schumacher, a health metrics researcher at the IHME, highlighted that nations must address population decline and its effects without delay.

Many countries are taking steps to counter falling fertility rates, but even the most effective measures are unlikely to fully reverse the decline. Experts suggest focusing on resilience instead, noting that slowing the trend can give nations time to adapt -- and that moderately low fertility rates may offer some advantages.

We’re not not making babies,” said Barbara Katz Rothman, a sociologist at the City University of New York, adding: “The human race is not folding in on itself.”

Global fertility rates have been declining for decades, with the average number of children per woman dropping from five in the mid-20th century to around 2.2 today.

Many countries, including South Korea and Mexico, are now below the replacement level of 2.1, raising concerns about shrinking populations, aging societies and economic impacts. Exceptions exist in sub-Saharan Africa, where high fertility rates are expected to drive population growth.

The decline is driven by multiple factors: increased access to contraception and education, changing social norms, career ambitions, rising costs of housing and child-rearing, delayed parenthood and environmental and political anxieties.

Ultra-low fertility rates often reflect systemic pressures that prevent people from having the number of children they want.

Policy measures to counter falling fertility rates such as financial incentives, parental leave and childcare support can help but are unlikely to fully reverse trends.

Adaptation strategies—raising retirement ages, encouraging immigration and strengthening social support systems—are crucial to mitigate the effects of population decline.

Experts stress that moderately lower populations can bring benefits, including reduced environmental pressure and more resources per child, as long as economies and social systems adapt.

Ultimately, declining fertility is not catastrophic if nations proactively adjust to demographic changes.