Russian priority is to protect Assad, say analysts

By Ayhan Simsek

BERLIN

Russia’s main priority with its airstrikes in Syria is to protect the Assad regime, rather than fighting Daesh, analysts have told Anadolu Agency.

“Russian military strikes don’t seem to be directed primarily against Daesh,” said Josef Janning, acting director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)’s Berlin office, in an interview.

“It may well be that Russia’s first interest and its initial actions are to reassure the Assad regime that it is going to help [it] to defend itself against all enemies. Which of course would make things far more complicated,” he added.

Russia began airstrikes in Syria on Wednesday after a buildup of supplies at an airbase there in recent weeks.

The targeting of the strikes has come into question with the Syrian National Coalition, the main Western-backed opposition alliance, claiming the Russian bombs killed 36 civilians.

Areas targeted by Russia were free of any Daesh or al-Qaeda presence, the group's chief, Khaled Khoja, said in New York on Wednesday.

ECFR senior fellow Janning said Russia’s beginning of its airstrikes from targeting armed opposition groups other than Daesh could be a message to both Damascus and Western countries.

“I guess the signal to Assad is: ‘We are here to keep you in the game’. Second, the relevance of which I find difficult to assess…to Washington and to a lesser degree to the Europeans… ‘You better start to seek our cooperation because we can do harm’,” he commented.

The U.S., Turkey and a group of Western and Gulf allies on Thursday urged Russia to immediately stop its airstrikes on Syrian opposition forces and civilians.

Janning pointed out that in recent weeks it has become clearer for Russia that its main ally in the region, Assad, is incapable of turning the war, while Daesh has strengthened its pseudo-state structure, raising concerns that the group can further expand areas it controls.

“Al-Assad is not able to reverse the trend, and this prompts Russia’s action,” Janning said.

“Russia senses that the developments in Syria are now at a critical stage. The critical development is the imminent disintegration of Syria. And this is something they want to prevent,” he added.

Janning warned that if Russia continues to target opposition groups rather than Daesh, this may lead to tensions with U.S. and its allies, and further complicate the situation in Syria.

“The level of activity is increasing…and also the potential for miscommunication and accidental casualties is growing….the need of coordination is growing, and this means ….you cannot just inform on a military level, there needs to be more political consultation,” he said.

Alexander Rahr, a prominent German author and expert on Russia, said although Washington and Moscow both see the need to act against growing threats by Daesh, they take action in line with their different priorities.

“We see different priorities in Syria. The Russian priority is to prevent this critical region of the Middle East, Syria and Iraq from going under the control of the Saudis and of the Gulf States who are very close to the U.S.,” he said.

Rahr claimed that while Saudi Arabia was trying to decrease the influence of Iran in the region and trying to strengthen Sunni groups, Russia was for a stable and strong Iran, as a counter-weight to Saudi Arabia.

“Russia wants to keep its strategic military bases in Syria, because with these … Russia is back in the Mediterranean Sea as a world power. Of course Russia is interested in keeping al-Assad, who is an ally of Russia, in the whole picture,” he stressed.

Rahr argued that Russia’s more assertive involvement in Syria did not come as a surprise.

“Putin did not want to repeat the mistake he made 14 years ago. At that time he suggested a multi-national coalition against terrorism. He suggested this to [U.S.] President [George W.] Bush, but he did not react at all. And this alliance has never been built,” Rahr said.

“Now Putin did not want to fall in this trap again by suggesting something and [be] treated like a junior partner. So he took action himself. Now he wants to have the lead in this anti-terrorist alliance,” Rahr added.