By Magda Panoutsopoulou
ATHENS
The split in the ruling Syriza coalition is likely to force Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to call early elections, Athens-based political analyst Ioannis Mantzikos told Anadolu Agency on Wednesday.
"Tsipras has already reshuffled his Cabinet on July 18, forcing out those ministers who did not accept the bailout agreement," Mantzikos explained.
"But that will not be enough to stabilize the political environment. The Left Platform, which is the wing of Syriza that opposes the bailout, controls half of Syriza’s local committees, while 109 out of 201 members of the Central Committee voted against the bailout deal. It is led by former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, one of the ministers obliged to leave the government."
This means that Tsipras is likely to be obliged to call early elections, Mantzikos continued. "Tsipras will try to form a more cohesive government that can implement Greece's third bailout. Tsipras will probably wait for the end of negotiations with creditors before dissolving his current government. The talks to finalize the third bailout will take several weeks, with the new program announced no earlier than mid-August."
This could lead to Tsipras' abandoning the left wing of his party, to form up a coalition with the opposition, Mantzikos said.
"Tsipras is the most popular politician in Greece, and he knows whatever group he champions will perform well in new elections. If rebel members of Syriza choose to form their own left-wing party, and given Tsipras' popularity, a likely scenario is that Tsipras will form a kind of alliance with opposition parties like New Democracy, Potami, and Pasok."
Tsipras may not remain popular once elected, Mantzikos said. "However, even if he is re-elected, he will have the tough task of introducing unpopular measures. This could lead to the emergence of new, anti-system parties that, once again, opposed the bailout."
Mantzikos added that the economic crisis is far from over, and so the political situation remains volatile.
