New Delhi will be at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical gathering this weekend as BRICS leaders meet amid multiple wars and a crowded diplomatic calendar, with the US-Iran war set to test the unity of the expanding non-Western bloc.
The war has put BRICS member Iran in direct conflict with Washington, while other countries in the grouping have sharply different relationships with both sides.
That tension will loom over the two-day BRICS Leaders' Summit on Saturday and Sunday, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, among other leaders.
The summit comes at a "time of belligerent actions as well as great flux in the international order and international life," Sourabh Gupta of the Institute for China-America Studies told Anadolu.
The gathering will be closely watched in the West, with the Iran war, Russia-Ukraine war, global trade disputes and issues such as artificial intelligence and blockchain payments all likely to feature prominently, he said.
For British political expert Martin Jacques, BRICS' expansion has made the grouping "more important" in the current geopolitical climate.
Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, BRICS expanded in January 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, followed by Indonesia in January 2025.
The 11-member grouping has since broadened its reach further, with Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam joining as partner countries in 2025.
Its significance has also grown because of US President Donald Trump and “the widespread antipathy in the Global South for Trump and his policies," Jacques told Anadolu.
The gathering comes less than two weeks before the UN General Assembly's high-level week and Xi's expected Sept. 24 meeting with Trump.
The US-Iran war will "cast a shadow over" the summit, said Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group.
The conflict poses a particularly difficult test for a grouping that operates by consensus, with its members holding sharply different positions and pursuing their own national interests.
"Members will try to push forward their own agendas and might even derail the main agenda," Donthi told Anadolu from India.
Gupta emphasized the fact that Iran is fighting the US, whose political and economic influence extends across the world and affects the calculations of other countries in the grouping.
Those differences are likely to become particularly visible over their response to the threat of additional US sanctions on countries doing business with Iran.
"No doubt, the BRICS will have a common hortatory position on the Iran sanctions. These sanctions are, for the most part, unilateral sanctions … and the BRICS member countries hold a common position in principle against such extraterritorial measures," Gupta said.
But agreement in principle does not mean a common response.
“There will be little unity on display in terms of their responses to the sanctions," he said.
China, Gupta predicted, will "stare down the US on the sanctions," while India will "mutely adhere to them" and Brazil and South Africa will "discontentedly abide by them."
Donthi similarly questioned whether the summit could produce consensus on the conflict.
"The grouping includes members from opposing camps in the US-Iran war, so it's unlikely to reach consensus on such issues," he said.
Jacques said one of the most revealing aspects of the summit will be how openly BRICS leaders challenge Washington over Iran.
"What might it say about the US-Iran conflict, to what extent countries of the BRICS show displeasure towards Trump's foreign policy on Iran – that is going to be interesting," he said.
Geopolitical analyst Einar Tangen said members are seeking greater strategic autonomy rather than a wholesale break with the US-led economic system.
"Members do not want a confrontation with the United States, but they don't want to be dependent on Washington, Beijing, Moscow, or any other powers," the Beijing-based analyst told Anadolu.
“BRICS+ aims to protect its members against disruptions in trade, finance, energy, and technology without separating from the West,” he added.
Rather than an "anti-American alliance," Tangen described BRICS+ as a "network of overlapping partnerships designed to survive a less predictable global order."
That balancing act is reflected in India's theme for this year's summit: Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability. For Tangen, the emphasis on resilience reflects the upheaval confronting countries across the Global South.
"Ongoing wars … including Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, the Sahel, and eastern Congo – drive the push for resilience and the need for diplomacy and peace," he said.
US tariffs, export controls and sanctions are also pushing countries to explore ways to reduce their exposure to economic pressure, according to Tangen.
"The economies are initiating countermeasures, which Washington ironically uses to justify its original actions and support another round," he said.
Gupta said the disruption extends beyond geopolitics.
"Elevated global financial risks mean that disruption is not solely limited to global geopolitics; competitive geoeconomics has also risen to the fore," he said.
But when forced to choose, he argued, individual BRICS members are still likely to prioritize their own economic interests.
Each country "will prioritize its ties to the US and access to the dollar-based international financial system over the common hortatory BRICS position," he said.
The sight of Modi, Xi, Putin and Pezeshkian gathered "under the same non-Western roof" will itself be one of the summit's defining images, Gupta said.
Their presence is likely to attract close attention in Western capitals as BRICS seeks greater influence in a global system long dominated by the US and its allies.
There is “bound to be some anxiety and curiosity in Western capitals,” Donthi said.
But he cautioned against overstating the cohesion behind the optics.
Western governments, he said, are also likely to recognize the grouping's limitations and the complicated bilateral relationships among its members, including between India and China.
Gupta similarly argued that Western unease over the summit may say as much about the West's own uncertainty as it does about BRICS' ability to act collectively.
"In part, this has more to do with the West's own lack of confidence than any major cohesive steps that the BRICS are taking," he said.
The summit will also revive a longstanding question surrounding whether the bloc can reduce its dependence on the US dollar.
Tangen dismissed the prospect of a single BRICS+ currency as “not feasible,” but said members are “aggressively expanding” the volume of transactions settled in their own currencies, including the Indian rupee and Russian ruble.
“There is the possibility to use a basket of currencies approach to a trade settlement fiat, but the extra step may not be worth the cost, as long as there are transaction services to smooth out direct currency trade issues,” he said.
“While the dollar remains central to global finance, alternative settlement systems are gradually eroding its monopoly on international trade,” he added.
Gupta recalled Trump’s intense backlash against the idea in late 2024.
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER," Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, threatening 100% tariffs on any countries that move to replace the "mighty" US dollar.
Even so, Gupta said Western governments will be watching what he called BRICS' "baby steps" toward an alternative global economic architecture, including blockchain-aided payment systems among members.
Donthi also highlighted clashing views on alternative currency systems.
“Middle powers such as India wouldn’t be keen on weakening the dollar, especially without a viable alternative, which would make its primary strategic rival China stronger,” he said.
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