2026 set to become 2nd-warmest year on record, EU's climate service warns

The year 2026 is virtually certain to become the second calendar year on record to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, following 2024, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

In its latest climate assessment, released on Friday and based on data through October, Copernicus said 2026 was most likely to rank as the second-warmest year on record, with an approximately 80% probability.

There is also a 20% chance that this year's global average temperature will equal or surpass the record set in 2024, it said.

The four-year average global temperature for 2023-2026 is also expected to exceed the 1.5C threshold, highlighting the sustained rise in global temperatures.

October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35C.

The month was also 1.75C warmer than the estimated pre-industrial average, marking the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5C.

According to Copernicus, the average global sea surface temperature outside polar regions reached 20.95C in October, the highest level recorded for the month.

In the tropical Pacific, El Nino conditions continued to intensify.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said an exceptionally strong El Nino was adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.

- Europe sees second-warmest October

Europe recorded its second-warmest October on record, with an average land temperature of 11.51C, or 1.49C above the 1991-2020 average.

Copernicus also reported persistent dry conditions across parts of western Iberia, France, central and eastern Europe, the Balkans and peninsular Italy.

Exceptionally low river flows continued across large parts of central and eastern Europe, affecting major waterways including the Rhine, Danube and Vistula.

- Sea ice levels remain below average

Arctic sea ice extent was approximately 9% below average in October, ranking as the 13th lowest for the month in the 48-year satellite record.

Sea ice extent in the Black Sea reached a record low for October.

Antarctic sea ice extent was also around 9% below average, making it the second-lowest October level on record, behind only 2023.